Is Iran About To Go "All In?"

A Mid-Summer Night’s Nightmare

Have you wondered why Iranian President Ahmadinijad is smiling? If you were, then it may be because he knows something you don't. While his situation may seem dire to those on the outside, this veteran of the U.S. Embassy takeover is an experienced political infighter, and is preparing a maneuver to protect himself from enemies foreign and domestic.

If you know the origins of the U.S. Embassy takeover, you know Ahmadinijad was a member of the cabal that hatched the scheme, and a participant. You will also know that that particular act was designed more for domestic reasons than as an attempt to affect international politics.

Though the kidnappers demanded that the US arrest and return the Shah to Iran, the main reason for the attack was to bring attention and popularity to the Mullah's version of how the revolution should proceed. It was a successful strike for the islamists to wrest the popular revolution from the hands of secular socialists, and morph it into a radical religious movement. Even when the embassy was taken, the "students" would periodically release "discovered evidence" to paint moderates or the mullah's domestic political enemies as CIA spies, or collaborators. They used this means to create a "terror" phase of the revolution reminiscent of the terror phase of the French Revolution. It is typical for revolutions go through this stage, but in Iran killings consolidated the hold of a political religious class. The dreams and aspirations of those members of Iranian society who dreamed of a post Shah Iran as a progressive, secular, state, evaporated as their political leaders will killed or driven into exile.

However, the grim, austere, joyless world view offered by the Mullahs and Sharia law does not enjoy much popular appeal in its application. The Mullahs discovered what so many revolutionaries did before, that running a country is much harder than whipping up the emotion necessary to overthrow it. Ahmadinijad and the Mullahs had to fall back on "the perpetual revolution" as discovered by Robespierre, Lenin, Mao, and Fidel Castro. Maintenance of loyalty to the revolution, and hence the regime, was dependant upon a constant struggle against outside powers who sought to overthrow the great revolution. While the Embassy hostages were still in Iran, Saddam Hussein's Iraq, sensing weakness in the chaos of post revolution Iran, attacked. The Mullah's revolution found a benefit in having a surplus of enemies. While the Iranian people felt besieged by Sunni Iraq, embargoed and vilified by the western world, and threatened by the "atheist" Soviet Union, the Mullahs did not need to offer anything attractive by way of governance. They merely had to call for unity in the face of enemies.

Ahmadinijad has problems at home. He and the Mullahs face a population that is one of the youngest in the world in terms of demographics. The Iraq war and the prolific birth rate have changed the face of the country he helped overthrow. Few of Iranians alive today were even born when the Americans were held hostage, and fewer still remember life under the Shah Pahlavi. The people of Iran are young and feel constrained by the oppressive rules of Sharia. They are using cell phones to transmit all sorts of subversive mpeg files to each other as humor, from a young woman using karate on the morality police who have come to chastise her for "indecency", to computer animations that transform Ahmadinijad's image into that of a monkey. While there is still a nationalist spirit and an autonomic hatred of the West, in practical terms the populace is tired of the Islamic Revolution. It is a very short step for them to stop supporting the regime, and make the intellectual leap to supporting western values in addition to the western lifestyle they crave. The moment that happens, Ahmadinijad and the Mullahs are out of power.

So, why is Ahmadinijad smiling? He is prepared to return to the successful tactics of his youth in politics. He can bolster his domestic powerbase by creating enemies which his public must fear. He can antagonize the West, and get sanctions so the economic problems aren't his government's fault. He can eliminate his political opponents and have them killed by claiming they are CIA spies. Finally, I suspect, he may plan to drastically reduce that burgeoning population of young people.

Ahmadinijad plans to launch a war. In earlier essays I discussed the means and methods by which Iran may choose to inflict nuclear terrorism on the United States and Israel. This suicidal tactic, a virtual "bomb belt" for his whole country, is very much in line with the martyr complex of Shiite Islam. Another, parallel maneuver he may implement as soon as this summer is also viable from his perspective. In fact, some of the recent developments across the Middle East may be preparatory maneuvers for just this action. Ahmadinijad may choose to launch another pan-Mid-East war this Fall along the lines of the 1967 Six-Day-War. Iranian controlled Hezbollah in Lebanon, combined with Syrian forces, may attack northern Israel and the Golan Heights. Hamas may have taken absolute military control of Gaza, so that it can launch a simultaneous ground offensive into Southern Israel, picking up "the Egyptian front." Iran would send forces to attack Israel, passing through northern Iraq (Kurdistan) to link up with Hezbollah and Syria. This would mean a massive Iranian army attempting to roll over the small U.S. force in Iraq, which has been re-tooled for peace keeping duties rather than large scale, heavy unit, maneuver warfare. No doubt that U.S. air superiority and advanced technology weapon systems will make mincemeat of the massive Iranian army, but that would suit Ahmadinijad just fine. The Iranian army will be composed of all those unreliable young men who may choose to reject Islamism, unless they personally suffer horribly at the hands of the Americans. The effect of the massive casualties would be magnified through out the remaining Iranian population, who would lose friends, relatives, lovers and children. The Mullahs could then take to the international, sympathetic airwaves, decrying the brutality of the U.S., and at home elevate a whole generation of good Shiite martyrs.

This is the strategy for the whole new generation of Islamic political leaders. They have yet to prove their strength of will, after having taken over from their fathers. Hafez Assad is gone, as are Arafat, Nasser, Yassin and Khomeini. For a new generation of Islamic political leaders, in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and amongst the Palestinians, it would be a win-win war. They get to prove to their populations that they are willing to attack the Zionists and Crusaders rather than just talk about it, and simultaneously kill off a large, potentially uncontrollable part of their own population, all while fanning the fires of rage that sustain their legitimacy, without having to produce results.

As Osama bin Laden said, "the West values life, while we value death." Massive casualties are bad for our politicians, but good for theirs. One best not play games against opponents, unless you know what their win conditions are. One hopes that our political leaders have, like Thomas Jefferson's reading the Koran, taken the time to get to know our enemies.

By David Roth

Comments are welcome at redstatepatriot@hughes.net. Please include the title of the article as your subject line. Selected responses, in whole or part, may be published (appended to the article).

Response from Mark L.
As Christians we know the ending don't we?

Posted June 21, 2007 12:39 PM
Read more on Articles - David Roth ~ Islam, Terrorism and WMD